duction cannot go beyond 100 MMbd
(Total) or 110 MMbd (BP). This
means that in 10 years or so we will
reach the peak of oil production.
Further demands for energy have to
be satisfied by nuclear, renewables,
coal and natural gas.
Natural gas is a clean fuel, abundant, easy to access and localized in
many parts of the globe. Its mobility
has lately increased because of LNG
and the long-distance pipeline infrastructure. Consequently, I see it as
the major source of future demands
for energy.
lor the solution to our customers’
exact requirements. This makes
Siemens unique. We already have received an order for a “green
pipeline” where compressors are
driven by highly efficient electric motors in populated areas and gas turbines where
the power infrastructure is
not available.
Carbon offset
certificates ensure a net zero
CO2 footprint.
We believe the
system will
gain wide acceptance for
facing environmental concerns.
sure this trend will continue in 2010
and this will reflect positively on
their capital budgets.
While the first part of the year will
remain fairly flat, additional spending
can be forecast for the second half of
2010 when new projects, that were
temporarily put
on hold, will be
reactivated.
Being that the
oil market is a
global market,
this trend will
be worldwide.
The gas mar-
ket is regionally
fragmented, and
in my view will
remain fairly soft in the upstream
sector. Downstream (pipelines) will
continue to increase as a part of
infrastructure build-out driven by the
need for distributed power genera-
tion. Activities will be concentrated in
the Far East,
specifically in
India and China.
Looking further
on I can see
major pipeline
activities in Europe, but some years will have to go
by before the Nabucco-type pipelines
become reality.
Can you tell us how environmental
concerns play an important role in
favor of the use of natural gas?
Associated gas flaring at the wellhead is a long-standing practice that
is only now being phased out.
Flaring is polluting and a waste of
energy and money. In many countries this practice is prohibited by
law, other countries, such as Russia
and Nigeria, have set some boundaries and this practice will be
stopped in time. In other countries,
such as Iraq, monetizing this resource is becoming policy rather
than flaring. People are realizing
that natural gas is a precious commodity. Similarly, many regions of
the world, in particular the Middle
East, hold abundant reserves of H2
S-rich gas, which lay fallow because
of the associated complexities and
hazards in producing it. However,
dwindling reserves of conventional
gas and increasing consumption are
forcing producers to develop new
ways to monetize these hitherto ignored reserves.
“Another interesting achievement in the pipeline domain is development of the hybrid approach for gas booster stations. Compressors installed on the same pipeline are driven by gas turbines or electric motors depending on the location, availability of electric power and requirements for low emissions.”
“Downstream (pipelines) will con- tinue to increase as a part of infra- structure build-out driven by the need for distributed power generation.”
The year 2009 will be remembered
as the year of the global crisis. Can
you tell us how this general slowdown has affected the business of
your division?
Our fiscal 2009 ended September
30. It was a record year for the division, both top line and bottom line
performance. The healthy backlog we
had built prior to the downturn has
enabled us to maintain momentum
even in these difficult times. I am particularly pleased with our 1.0 book to
bill ratio and even more so when I
compare this to our main competitors’
achievements.
Can you give us your opinion of
your business perspectives for the oil
and gas industry in 2010?
I would separate the oil from the
gas industry.
OPEC has done a good job in balancing supply with demand. Oil
prices are up again at this time and
the oil companies will budget the
New Year, which in many cases coincides with the fiscal year, at a
higher oil price than in 2009. I am
Do you believe the forecast of 30% of
natural gas consumption as LNG by
2030 is still valid?
Right now, we are experiencing a
short-term LNG surplus for a number
of reasons beyond the present state of
the economy. But, I believe that from
2014 this will be absorbed and new
projects will come on-stream.
Energy requirements are growing
at 1.5% per year. Global oil production is presently at 85 million barrels
per day (MMbd), major oil companies believe that maximum oil pro-
What does this mean
for the technology?
Even in small quantities, H2S is lethally
poisonous, creating
operational chal-
lenges in safeguarding plant operators. Further, it is extremely detrimental to high alloy metals such as in
turbines causing hydrogen embrittlement and accelerated material fatigue.
This, in turn, creates new challenges
for material sciences and combustion
engineers faced with minimizing NOX
and SOX emissions.
What will be done with the sulfur?
For many, these would be insurmountable hurdles. For the Siemens
design team we recognize opportunity within this adversity, and precisely that keeps us pushing beyond
the limits to develop the world’s
best turbines. ;
